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Campaign Budget & Profit Forecaster

Turns historical campaign data and a recent baseline into CPM/CVR/AOV estimates and backtested budget, revenue, and contribution-profit scenarios.

Data & AnalyticsAdvanced★ 249⑂ 24AI score 8/10Last updated: Oct 26, 2026

What it does

  • Locks definitions and basis first: source, extraction date, campaign vs. comparison windows, platform, market, currency, attribution, refund maturity.
  • Builds CPM/CVR/AOV multipliers as that year's campaign value ÷ that year's pre-campaign baseline, applying all three from one year together to recent baselines (explicitly banning cherry-picked best-of combinations).
  • Runs chronological holdout backtests, comparing "carry the baseline forward" against the historical analogy with signed errors, absolute errors, and CVR gaps in percentage points.
  • Connects the full chain: budget → impressions → clicks → sessions → orders → revenue; contribution per order; campaign contribution; break-even ROAS (1÷m and (F+B)÷(m×B)); required revenue for a target profit = (F+B+P)÷m.
  • Specifies handling for zero, missing, and negative values (no IFERROR(...,0) masking of undefined formulas) and distinguishes ROAS from ROI.

Who it's for

  • E-commerce owners and operators planning Black Friday or other large promotions
  • Performance marketers and agency planners sizing ad budgets
  • Data/finance folks who must report true contribution profit, not just ROAS

Examples

  • "Here are two prior Black Friday periods plus a 4-week recent baseline — model revenue and contribution profit for $5k / $10k / $20k budgets."
  • "Hold out last year's campaign and forecast it using only earlier data; compare errors against the baseline-carry-forward model."
  • "Fixed costs $8k, ad budget $10k, pre-ad contribution margin 45%, target profit $5k — what revenue, orders, and sessions are required?"

· · · Install guide · · ·

Try it now, no install

Paste this into Claude to use the skill without installing anything.

Read the instructions in this file and follow them to help me:
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/backtrue/thinkwithblack-skill/HEAD/en/extensions/forecast-event-profit/SKILL.md

What I want: (describe your task here)

If Claude can't open the link, open it yourself and paste the contents instead.

↓ If it works for you, download the ZIP below and install it. Then it runs on its own — no pasting each time.

Install in the Claude app (no terminal)
  1. Download the ZIP with the button below.
  2. In Claude, open Settings → Capabilities and turn on 'Code execution and file creation'. (one time)
  3. Go to Customize → Skills → + → 'Upload a skill' and upload the ZIP.
↓ Download ZIP
Install in Claude Code

Let Claude do it — paste this into Claude Code

Install the skill I found on AI Skill Mart.
Copy the en/extensions/forecast-event-profit folder from the GitHub repo backtrue/thinkwithblack-skill into my ~/.claude/skills/forecast-event-profit/.
When it's done, tell me in one line what this skill can do.

Install with a command instead

git clone https://github.com/backtrue/thinkwithblack-skill.git && mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills && cp -r thinkwithblack-skill/en/extensions/forecast-event-profit ~/.claude/skills/

⚠ This is a third-party skill. Check the source repository before installing.

  1. Open your terminal.
  2. Clone the repository: git clone https://github.com/backtrue/thinkwithblack-skill.git
  3. Create the skills directory: mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills
  4. Copy the skill in: cp -r thinkwithblack-skill/en/extensions/forecast-event-profit ~/.claude/skills/
  5. Confirm bundled files such as references/sources.md came along with it.
  6. Restart Claude Code and try a prompt like "Forecast profit by budget level for our Black Friday campaign".
  7. Prepare your historical campaign data, pre-campaign baselines, and a recent baseline with periods and currency clearly labeled before asking.
View source on GitHub ↗License: MIT